On 22 July last year, my local airport, Copenhagen Airport, witnessed a record-breaking 115,000 passengers in a single day, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. July 2024 became the busiest month in the airport’s 99-year history, reflecting a global trend. In fact, ICAO projects that air transport demand will continue to rise by an average of 4.3% annually over the next two decades.
It is, therefore, worth keeping in mind that when the ReFuelEU mandate states that 70% of aviation fuel must be SAF by 2050, that is not 70% of the 2024 fuel total, but of the projected demand in 2050. We have some work to do.
This article was originally published in the January/February 2025 issue of Biofuels International and is reprinted with their kind permission.
Progress is happening
Some of the trends we are seeing emerge will continue in 2025 and beyond. Emerging markets are showing significant interest in producing SAF and are aiming to export to regulated zones while gradually implementing domestic mandates. The EU is actively promoting innovation, securing funding, and creating supportive regulatory frameworks to make eSAF a reality. Robust regulations supporting SAF supply and demand are being enforced in the EU, UK, US, and Brazil, with countries like China, Japan, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the UAE developing their own frameworks. Investment in SAF projects has grown, reflecting increasing confidence in the sector. Airlines, cargo companies, and various corporations are making voluntary commitments to use SAF to reduce Scope 3 emissions, complementing regulatory efforts.
Not all blue skies
The path to SAF is not without turbulence. We have seen renewable projects canceled or postponed due to various factors, including a preference for short-term investments in refining, higher margins in fossil fuels, mid-term uncertainties in the SAF market and pricing, and a lack of meaningful offtake agreements. It also crossed a spectrum of players from Shell and bp to Fulcrum BioEnergy and Oceania Biofuels – and it is possible we will see a few more delayed or canceled projects this year. However, it is important to note that some projects are simply on hold, awaiting a more stable market and pricing structure as SAF production scales.
A more discernible pattern that will be carried into 2025 is the extension of project timelines, with increased dialogue time and time to Final Investment Decisions (FID). Legislators need to further strengthen support to help accelerate progress. Current regulations still lack sufficient impact to drive SAF demand globally. While EU mandates starting in 2025 will help, a more widespread regulatory approach is needed to meaningfully boost demand and close existing regulatory gaps.
A promising market
Despite some delays, the SAF market remains promising, with mandates growing and demand consistently outpacing supply. At Topsoe, for instance, we are engaged in discussions for over 320,000 barrels per stream day (bpsd) in licensed projects at various development stages. Success will come through continued collaboration. Currently, we have five renewable diesel or SAF projects at FID and 21 in operation, with an additional 40 renewable projects in the pipeline, excluding co-processing. In synfuels, we are advancing four biofuels projects and two eFuels projects, including one at the demonstration stage, which shows strong potential to proceed. The market looks strong and active from our perspective as we enter the final five years of the decade.
De-risking technology
De-risking in general continues to be a major factor for SAF producers, and when it comes to de-risking technology, it will continue to be a top priority for our customers. Topsoe is involved in technology projects that conservatively represent about one-third of the SAF market. Our longest-running renewable fuel reference has been operational for over 14 years, with our HydroFlex™ technology. So, for processing a variety of renewable feedstocks, we have reliable technology with a good yield. However, in such an active space, we are not resting.
It is crucial for solution providers like us to focus on preparing catalysts and technology for life beyond Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA). Solid waste and third-generation feedstocks, expected to reach 3.4 billion tonnes by 2050, represent a much more abundant and sustainable resource. We must be prepared.
The technology outlook
For solid feedstocks, we are seeing growing interest in solutions like G2L™ Biofuels for synthetic- and gas-based SAF and G2L™ eFuels for renewable energy-based production. In 2025, we will continue to advance MTJet™ Biofuels and MTJet™ eFuels, methanol-to-jet technologies. eSAF holds vast potential, but this faces logistical challenges, requiring affordable hydrogen and biogenic CO2. Achieving economies of scale will depend on first movers, mandates, and subsidies – it’s a matter of time, but we may see some meaningful movement this year.
Elsewhere, our ETJ technology is not yet branded or ready for rollout, but we are developing a differentiated solution with strong potential for future SAF pathways – details will follow soon. Processes like gasification and pyrolysis need further maturity for broad rollout, but Topsoe is actively engaging in projects to prepare for commercial viability, with promising progress ahead.
Looking further ahead
If we want to look further than 2025, we still need a crystal ball. Our stance on feedstocks and pathways is simple – test, de-risk, be ready, and remain flexible. Central to this is working in knowledge-based partnerships, collaborating meaningfully across the value chain. In a fast-growing SAF space, it will be important to share experience and best practices with both new entrants and established fuel producers.
This means not only ensuring the best solution and catalysts are delivered for each unique project, but also assisting customers in reaching FID and enabling cost-efficient, future-proofed SAF production. The SAF space is buzzing, and we are very optimistic heading into this year. The industry has progressed from what might be possible to the point where we are making it happen and ironing out the creases for further production pathways. Our journey has begun.
De-risking technology pathways, staying agile in feedstock processing, and working in collaboration will help us overcome the barriers that still exist.